Mandels Mailbag: Could the ACC and Pac-12 save themselves with a coast-to-coast merger?

June 09, 2024

As streaming services go, Apple+ seems to have a pretty high hit rate. “Ted Lasso,” “Severance,” “The Morning Show” and “Shrinking” all rank among my favorite shows of the past three years. If that’s where the Pac-12 lands, it will be in pretty good company.

But as of this writing, there was still a decent chance that logo ultimately lands at the bottom of the Pacific.

The ACC is locked into a lousy, destabilizing long-term media rights deal, and the Pac-12 may soon be locked into a lousy, destabilizing long-term media rights deal. Is there any potential to have those conferences themselves merge to create a rival super-conference that is truly bicoastal? Annual matchups of Clemson vs. Oregon football and Arizona vs. Duke men’s basketball would be compelling.

Glenn H.

Yep, you may be on to something.

Although a conference that spans from the Pacific Northwest to South Florida makes no sense geographically, it may be the best option either side has going for it. Note that ACC commissioner Jim Phillips said at conference media days they’ve “spent considerable time on expansion to see if there is anything that fits.” Also note there are no obvious value-add expansion candidates available in the eastern half of the country. A Memphis or USF would not move the needle.

You know who would? Oregon and Washington.

Those two have to be exploring all possible avenues right now. Like Florida State, Clemson and Miami, both programs aspire to win national championships but don’t have an obvious path to make nearly the money SEC and Big Ten contenders do. The Big Ten seems less interested in further westward expansion than it did last fall, and joining the Big 12 would just be further resigning Oregon and Washington to a distant third.

Although ESPN is under no obligation to make the ACC richer if it adds more members, the West Coast schools could help boost one particular revenue stream: the ACC Network. Upgrading from nominal out-of-market subscriber fees to considerable in-market fees in major markets like the Bay Area (No. 10 in Nielsen market size), Seattle (No. 12) and Portland (No. 22) could generate significantly more revenue. Not enough to match the Big Ten/SEC, but enough to close the gap in a meaningful way.

I don’t think a full merger of 23 (as of this writing) teams is realistic, but logistically the ACC couldn’t just add two West Coast teams. I’m guessing the presidents at Duke, Virginia and North Carolina would love the idea of hobnobbing with Cal and Stanford. Maybe Arizona and/or Arizona State would be interested, too, if for no other reason than all that ESPN exposure.

The logistics would be ridiculous, but we’re long past the point of geographic sensibilities in realignment. It’s all about moolah, and right now everyone is just trying to find any possible path to making more of it.

GO DEEPER

If Arizona leaves for the Big 12, the Territorial Cup rivalry might go with it

Brett Yormark has clearly outmaneuvered George Kliavkoff repeatedly since becoming commissioner. Is it possible he’s quickly becoming the best conference commissioner? If so, how far can he realistically take the Big 12? With Oklahoma and Texas leaving, it no longer has any big-time brand names, but it historically has a very unpredictable season with a lot of fun and exciting games. Is there any possibility of gaining ground on the SEC/Big Ten, or is reaching for a very distant third-best conference the Big 12’s ceiling?

Justin, Denver

Yormark deserves all the plaudits he’s getting for proving a lot of people wrong (most notably myself) in the way he handled the league’s TV deal. Conventional wisdom says, take your product to the open market, you’ll have more leverage. The ACC, the NCAA and perhaps to some extent the SEC likely cost themselves money by re-upping with existing partners rather than seeing what other bids might be out there. Yormark did the opposite, signing extensions with ESPN and Fox as fast as humanly possible for the reported $31.7 million.

It’s a good thing he did. As the Pac-12 has rudely found out, there aren’t other linear bidders to be had right now. I know I didn’t account for the ripple effect that arose from Fox, NBC and CBS paying their combined billion dollars per year for Big Ten rights. The only major players left after that were ESPN and Fox, and ESPN was months away from a Disney spending crackdown. So kudos to Yormark. George Kliavkoff may have had the same opportunity but went chasing other offers that never came to pass.

Before we go knighting the guy, however, I do wonder: What is his strategy from here?

So far, the big move was adding Colorado, one of the worst Power 5 programs in the country over the last two decades. It was a show of strength, but I’m not sure it improves the league in any tangible way. If Arizona comes, too —– well, that’s another largely mediocre football program. The two have gone a combined 63-144 (.304) in the Pac-12 since it expanded in 2011. The Big 12 won’t lose money on them because of their pro-rata agreement with the networks, but it won’t make more from them, either.

We also know Yormark believes basketball is undervalued and wants the Big 12 to go all-in on hoops. Hence his fixation with UConn. Personally, I think UConn football would not be remotely competitive in the Big 12, and basketball, while strong, would be completely out of place. But I’m the same guy who said two years ago the Big 12 leftovers would be fortunate to make more than $12 million a year in TV money, so I’m the last person he should listen to.

Yormark has a roster of 13 schools with passionate fan bases and strong commitments to football success. They are under no delusion of being the Big Ten or SEC, but they have put themselves in position to remain relevant. The bad news is, not one of those 13 currently recruits at a level necessary to compete for national championships. Yes, I realize TCU played in the title game last year, but as you saw, the Horned Frogs did not bear much resemblance to Georgia. TCU was, however, the one school of the 13 to sign a top-25 recruiting class last year.

But this is where the 12-team Playoff could be a game-changer for conferences like the Big 12. At the very least, the league champ is going to make that bracket every year, and while it might never hoist the trophy, it can make some noise. There may be years where Texas Tech or Oklahoma State or Baylor has a particularly good team, gets into the CFP and knocks off an Ohio State or USC. Which then helps with recruiting, exposure, etc.

GO DEEPER

Wasserman: Big 12 recruiting without Texas, OU could put league's reputation in peril

If ESPN wants late-night Pac-12 games, why doesn’t the Big Ten swoop in and pick up Oregon, Washington and Stanford? It might not amount to a full season’s worth of games, but wouldn’t it be enough for the B1G to come up with a six- or seven-game After Dark package?

Jason, Sunnyvale, Calif.

My neighbor!

A quick reminder: Kevin Warren is no longer the Big Ten commissioner. Warren was the one making all that noise about the Big Ten possibly conquering the world. In fact, he reportedly went looking for a potential fourth partner (presumably ESPN) to buy just such a late-night package that would help make the league whole if it added even more schools. He reportedly did not find a taker. Meanwhile, all along his members were never as itchy as him to keep adding more schools.

Any such talk has screeched to a halt since Tony Petitti took over, and with good reason: Warren left behind quite a mess. As Pete Thamel reported in May, the massive TV deal he landed was unfinished and full of issues, like the fact he sold a Big Ten championship game to NBC he didn’t have the authority to sell. (Technically, Fox-owned BTN owns and sells all of the Big Ten’s rights.) Also, the league is still far from nailing down all the scheduling logistics involved in integrating all of USC and UCLA’s other sports.

As for the larger After Dark premise, while it’s easy to say, hey, move these four schools over here, and suddenly you can have all these 10:30 p.m. ET games, remember, Pac-12 schools hate playing those games. USC is looking forward to not having to play them. And if they hate playing a primetime road game on the West Coast with the late flight back, imagine how the current Big Ten schools would feel about an annual red-eye trip home. This is the same conference that balks at playing any night games anywhere in November because it’s too cold.

So no, I don’t see this happening, but that’s as of this moment, when the Pac-9 is still largely intact. If more schools defect and Oregon and Washington are sitting there without a home, it could conceivably change the equation. Especially since they’d likely come at a steep discount.

Over/under 0.5 teams making their first Playoff this year. And which teams have the best chance to do so?

Tom N., Chicago

I’ll take the over. Keep in mind, none of these presumptive preseason top-15 teams have ever made the Playoff: USC, Penn State, Texas, Utah and Tennessee.

Not to mention my Oregon State Beavers.

Stew, Looking back to your most recent preseason top 25, which of your top 10 teams feels most likely to finish unranked, and which unranked team do you think could end up in the top 10 by the end of the season.

Nicholas R., Sioux Falls, S.D.

There’s always at least one of each. But if it were easier to predict, I wouldn’t rank them that way in the first place.

There are two consensus top-10 teams whose hype is based more on projection than where they’ve actually been recently: Penn State and Florida State. The Nittany Lions have a lot of star power, but one of their most-hyped players is quarterback Drew Allar, who for all his tantalizing talent has not actually started a game yet. Penn State did win 11 games last year, but it was a lot of empty calories. Its most impressive win came in the Rose Bowl against Utah, but the Utes were also toast once quarterback Cam Rising went down.

Meanwhile, FSU won 10 games last season for the first time since 2016, but again, a bit deceiving. Their big wins at the end of the year came against a pair of big programs, Florida and Oklahoma, that both finished 6-7. The Seminoles do have a proven quarterback in Jordan Travis, a game-wrecking defensive end in Jared Verse and a lot more talent, but they still have some proving to do.

Of the two, I’d be more surprised if Penn State finished unranked just because it plays an extremely manageable schedule outside of Ohio State and Michigan, whereas FSU opens with LSU in Orlando and plays Clemson, Pitt and Florida all on the road.

As for the other end of the spectrum: I couldn’t justify ranking Texas A&M, but the Aggies could absolutely field a top-10 team. Jimbo Fisher has recruited top-five talent, and some of his best players last season were freshmen. But this will only happen if he gives offensive coordinator Bobby Petrino free rein to unleash sophomore quarterback Conner Weigman and do all the voodoo play calling he does so well.

Runner-up candidate: Oklahoma. Another 2022 underachiever that could take a big leap in Brent Venables’ second season.

What do you think of Dan Lanning’s new contract at Oregon? I think best case, you’re locking up a Mario Cristobal-level coach for the long term. Worst case, you’re signing the Mel Tucker deal.

Delaney B., Seattle

That seems like an awfully pessimistic view based off one season where … ah, Seattle. I get it now.

Unless it’s for a Nick Saban or Dabo Swinney, fully guaranteed long-term contracts in college football seem financially negligent to me. Nearly every coach in the country is one to two bad seasons from being on the hot seat. In Lanning’s case, he had a solid 10-3 debut season at Oregon, so a slip backward this season wouldn’t be all that impactful. But if, say, he goes a disappointing 7-5 in Bo Nix’s farewell campaign, then 4-8 the next, it would cost the school around $31 million to fire him — not even including the costs of buying out his assistants, conducting a search for the next guy, etc.

But, Oregon being a place that cares immensely about winning, it would undoubtedly pay the money and start the cycle anew.

However, there was something unique about Lanning’s extension — Oregon also made it prohibitively expensive for Lanning to take another job. If he does, he would owe the school $20 million. And that buyout is in effect for the entirety of his deal, which runs through the 2028 season. I’m frankly kind of amazed his agent let him sign it.

Clearly, the Ducks have been burned by their past two coaches, Willie Taggart and Cristobal, using them as a springboard to jobs back in their home state of Florida. There was concern among some prominent former players at the time Oregon hired him that Lanning, if successful, would do the same, particularly if an opportunity arose at an SEC school. That clause strongly discourages him from doing so. But it came with a price: that fully guaranteed contract.

Essentially, Oregon is betting there’s a better chance Lanning wins and becomes a flight risk than he founders so spectacularly they have to pay him not to work there. It still seems risky, but it will be quite the payoff if he goes on to become Chip Kelly II.

I’m a Northwestern fan who was only remotely interested in the upcoming season BEFORE the hazing reports came out. Any suggestions for how I might enjoy watching college football this year?

David S., Dayton, Ohio

Yes. Watch literally any game not involving Northwestern. There’s generally quite a few good ones each Saturday.

Oklahoma State and Mike Gundy are at a pivotal point. Gundy elected not to change OCs after the team went from a 5-0 start to a 7-6 finish. Oklahoma State did replace DC Derek Mason (coaching hiatus) with Gannon University’s Bryan Nardo. After the bad finish, a bevy of players bailing in the portal and a relatively unknown (though promising) new DC, what do you foresee for Gundy and the Pokes this season?

Joshua S.

Oklahoma State to me is one of the biggest wild cards in the country this season. The Cowboys are not Colorado or Arizona State, with new coaches and entirely new rosters, but they definitely have one of the widest variances of possible outcome. Which is weird to say of a program that’s only a season removed from winning the Fiesta Bowl and is bringing back the same head coach it has had for 18 years.

I was admittedly alarmed at the manner in which Gundy’s team imploded last October, going from a double-overtime loss to TCU and 41-34 win over Texas to a 48-0 drubbing by Kansas State and 37-16 rout by Kansas. The Cowboys’ top-five defense under former DC Jim Knowles in 2021 regressed all the way to 78th last season with Knowles off to Ohio State. Then came the attrition, most notably four-year quarterback Spencer Sanders’ surprise portal entry (he landed at Ole Miss) and the ensuing exit of three of his top five receivers. I’d be lying if I said I know much of anything about Nardo, but Gundy had success before hiring offensive coordinator Mike Yurcich (now at Penn State) from D-II.

But as the season gets closer, I’m hesitant to predict Gundy’s demise. This is not the first time his program — which averaged 10 wins a season from 2010 to ’17 — has had a setback. So far, it’s always bounced back. The Cowboys were on the verge of a losing season in 2014 before a dramatic Bedlam upset to get bowl-eligible, then returned to 10 wins in 2015. There was another dip to 7-6/8-5 in 2018-19, followed by Gundy’s T-shirt controversy that led to a $1 million pay cut. Things seemed dire. Instead, the Pokes returned to the Top 25 that fall and missed a CFP berth by inches the next.

As I look to this season, Oklahoma State may miss Sanders, but bringing in former Texas Tech starter Alan Bowman is not a bad Plan B. He has shown he can win in the Big 12. Brennan Pressley can be an excellent go-to receiver, and the Cowboys may feature an all-senior starting offensive line. Who knows what to make of that defense, but hybrid linebacker Collin Oliver and safety Kendal Daniels are good building blocks.

Do I see Oklahoma State contending for the Big 12 title? No, I do not. But the Big 12 this season has no obvious head-and-shoulders title contender. Everyone has questions. And perhaps most notably, the Cowboys play all four newcomers (Cincinnati, UCF, Houston and BYU), all of whom I expect to struggle initially.

I take it back. I could see Oklahoma State contending for the Big 12 title.

GO DEEPER

College football is changing around Mike Gundy. Will he change with it?

In the spirit of “Barbenheimer,” which two games being played the same weekend this upcoming season do you think have a chance to be wildly entertaining in completely incongruous ways?

Joseph D., Los Angeles

Fantastic question. After scanning the options, I believe the most fitting double feature will occur on Oct. 21: Minnesota–Iowa (13-10 last season) and Tennessee-Alabama (52-49). Doesn’t get much more contrasting than that.

And who among us has not thought about death while watching a Brian Ferentz offense.

(Photo: Sean M. Haffey / Getty Images)

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